| Abstract |
What is the National Panel Survey?
The NPS is nationally-representative household survey which provides measures of poverty, agricultural yields, and other key development indicators. The NPS is an “integrated” household survey, in that it covers a broad range of topics in the same questionnaire - from education and health to crime, gender-based violence and a range of other sections - to allow analysis of the links between sectors and the determinants of development outcomes.
Current plans are for the NPS to be repeated biennially, i.e., every 2 years. Thus round 2 will begin in late 2010. The term “panel” in the NPS title refers to surveys that return to the same interviewee on multiple occasions over time. The 2008/09 round is the first round of the NPS. However, in future years the NPS will return to all of the households interviewed in 2008/09 to track their outcomes over time.
Objectives
The National Panel Survey (NPS) was designed to meet three principle objectives. The first, overarching goals was to monitor progress toward the goals set out in the National Strategy for Growth and Poverty Reduction (aka, the MKUKUTA goals) and other national development objectives (MDG, PAF, etc.). The NPS provides high-quality, annual data on a long list of MKUKUTA indicators that is both nationally representative and comparable over time. As such, the NPS is intended to provide a key benchmark for tracking progress on poverty reduction and a wide range of other development indicators.
The second goal of the NPS is to facilitate better understanding of the determinants of poverty reduction in Tanzania. The NPS will enable detailed study of poverty dynamics at two levels. In addition to tracking the evolution of aggregate poverty numbers at the national level in years between Household Budget Surveys, the NPS will enable analysis of the micro-level determinants of poverty reduction at the household level. Panel data will provide the basis for analyzing the causal determinants of income growth, increasing or decreasing yields, improvements in educational achievement, and changes in the quality of public service provision over time by linking changes in these outcomes to household and community characteristics.
A third objective of the NPS is to provide data to evaluate the impact of specific policies and programs. With its national coverage and long time frame, the NPS will provide an ideal platform to conduct rigorous impact evaluations of government and non-government development initiatives. To achieve this goal, the NBS will need to work in close collaboration with the relevant line ministries to link administrative data on relevant projects to changes in development outcomes measured in the survey.
Sample design
In order to monitor progress toward the MKUKUTA goals, it was vital that the NPS have a nationally-representative sample design. As such, in 2008/09 the NPS interviewed 3,280 households spanning all regions and all districts of Tanzania, both mainland and Zanzibar.
The sample size of 3,280 households was calculated to be sufficient to produce national estimates of poverty, agricultural production and other key indicators. It will also be possible in the final analysis to produce disaggregated poverty rates for 4 different strata: Dar es Salaam, other urban areas on mainland Tanzania, rural mainland Tanzania, and Zanzibar. Alternatively, estimates of most key indicators can be produced at the zone level, as used for the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) reports and other surveys. There are 7 of these zones in total on the mainland: North, Central, Eastern, South, Southern Highlands, West and Lake. As with any survey though, the confidence of the estimates declines as statistics are disaggregated into smaller zones.
Due to the limits of the sample size it is not possible to produce reliable statistics at the regional or district level.
The guiding principle in the choice of sample size, following standard practice for NBS surveys, was to produce estimates with a 95% confidence interval no larger than 5% of the mean for key indicators. In this case, household consumption and maize yields were used as the basis for those calculations.
The NPS was based on a stratified, multi-stage cluster sample design. The principle strata were Mainland versus Zanzibar, and within these, rural versus urban areas, with a special stratum set aside for Dar es Salaam. Within each stratum, clusters were chosen at random, with the probability of selection proportional to their population size. In urban areas a 'cluster' was defined as a census enumeration area (from the 2002 Population and Housing Census), while in rural areas an entire village was taken as a cluster. This primary motivation for using an entire village in rural areas was for consistency with the HBS 2007 sample which did likewise.
Table 1 shows the break-down of the sample by geographic stratum. Based on the 2002 Population and Housing Census, rural residents comprise roughly 77% of the population, compared with 63% of the NPS sample. The NPS sample gives slighter greater weight to urban areas due to the higher levels of inequality in these areas, and added difficulty in estimating poverty rates and other statistics. Similarly, Zanzibar comprised roughly 3% of the Tanzanian population in the 2002 census, but constitutes nearly 15% of the NPS sample, so as to allow separate Zanzibar-specific estimates to be presented for most indicators.
Finally, although it has been stressed that the 2008/09 round is the first year of the NPS, the sample design for year 1 was deliberately linked to the 2007 HBS to facilitate comparison between the surveys. On mainland Tanzania, 200 of the 350 in the NPS were drawn from the 2007 HBS sample (this included all 140 rural HBS clusters). Within these 200 HBS clusters, a portion of the (8) households sampled for the NPS were taken from the sample of (24) HBS households in the cluster.
This design created a panel of approximately 1,200 HBS households - interviewed in both the HBS and NPS - within the total sample of 3,280 NPS households.
Timeline & organization of fieldwork
The first round of the NPS was collected over a 12-month period between October 2008 and September 2009.
Seven mobile survey teams conducted interviews year round, with each team working year round in a specific “work zone” of the country. Note that in order to balance the workload and travel times across teams, these work zones did not correspond perfectly to the administrative zones of the country. (The work zones were divided as follows: North-coast including Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Mara, Manyara and Tanga; Lake zone included Kagera, Kigoma, Mwanza and Shinyanga; Central zone including Dodoma, part of Iringa, Morogoro, Singida and Tabora; Southern zone including part of Iringa, Mbeya, Rukwa and Ruvuma; Eastern zone including Lindi, Mtwara, and Pwani; the Dar es Salaam zone and finally a separate zone for Zanzibar.
Within each zone, each district and each region were visited at 3 separate (randomly assigned) points during the year, so as to account for seasonal fluctuations.
The mobile teams spent roughly 4 to 5 days in each cluster (village or urban enumeration area). The first day was devoted to listing the cluster, i.e., compiling a list of the population of households in the cluster from which to draw a sample. The second and third days were devoted to interviews and the fourth to finalize data entry, call backs, etc. Median interview time was approximately 2.5 hours for the household questionnaire and 1.5 hours for the agricultural questionnaire. Considerable additional time was spent on anthropometric measurement of all household members and taking direct GPS measurement of a sub-sample of respondents'' farm plots.
Each mobile team was overseen by a supervisor from NBS and included a driver, four enumerators, and a data entry operator equipped with a laptop. The data entry operator was responsible for entering all questionnaires using the CsPro software package while in the field, conducting consistency checks of the data and instructing enumerators to re-visit households when problems were flagged by the software. Once entered and validated in CsPro, the electronic data was sent on a weekly basis from the field teams to NBS headquarters by email using 3G modems.
Contents of the survey and outline of this report
The main survey instrument of the NPS was the household questionnaire. This was administered to all households in the sample. General household information - including food consumption and other household expenditure, which is central to poverty measurement - was solicited from the household head or another knowledgeable adult member of the household. In addition, wherever possible, each individual member over 5 years of age was interviewed directly for sections on education, health, labour, and food eaten outside the home.
In addition to the household questionnaire, a separate 46-page agricultural questionnaire was administered to all households with any agricultural activities (including farming, fishing or livestock, or ownership of any shamba even if not under cultivation). The agricultural questionnaire included detailed sections on each plot and each crop under cultivation, as well as information on farm assets, extension services, use and marketing of farm by-products, etc. For a sample of roughly 25% of the farming households, enumerators used GPS devices to directly measure the size of all farming plots.
Finally, apart from the questionnaires administered to households, a separate community questionnaire collected information from village, kitongoji and/or mtaa leaders. The community questionnaire covered topics including local administration and governance and access to basic services.
Rather than simply tabulating the data from the hundreds of questions asked in these various questionnaires, this report is organized around the monitoring framework for the MKUKUTA goals. It is hoped that this organization provides a more intuitive presentation of the results that links directly to the national policy dialogue. It is not intended, however, that the NPS report should in anyway supplant existing MKUKUTA documents or the Tanzania Poverty and Human Development Report. These latter publications draw on data from a wide variety of sources to measure progress on MKUKUTA indicators. The NPS report focuses narrowly on the goals and indicators collected through the NPS, drawing only occasionally on other datasets for the purpose of comparison.
In a number of places, the NPS questionnaires provide extra detail relevant to MKUKUTA progress that goes beyond the specific indicators outlined in the MKUKUTA monitoring framework. In such cases, additional tables and statistics have been presented - in the relevant sections of the report - as a way of providing a deeper understanding of the process at work underlying progress on the core indicators. Key examples here are the enormous detail available on smallholder farming activities (presented under Cluster 1), which go far beyond the basic MKUKUTA indicators on technology usage and food production, and the in depth questions in the NPS on gender-based violence (data from which is presented under Cluster 3).
The future of the NPS
The 2008-09 survey is the baseline round of the NPS. Thus it provides a snapshot of development and household welfare in Tanzania at a given point in time. Wherever possible, this report makes direct comparisons to previous nationally-representative surveys to put the NPS data in context and highlight trends over time. However, due to differences in methodology, there are often limits to the detail and reliability of these comparisons.
Going forward, the NPS is intended to be repeated every two years. Round 2 in 2010-2011 will return to all 3,280 households from round 1 with a nearly identical questionnaire. As a result, in 2011 and every second year afterward, the NPS will provide a detailed and rigorously comparable picture of changes in household welfare and economic activities over time. |
| Table of contents |
Contents
Introduction 5
CLUSTER 1: GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION 14
Goal 1: Ensuring sound economic management 19
Goal 2: Promoting sustainable, broad-based growth 23
Goal 4: Reducing income poverty of both men and women in rural areas 30
Goal 6: Provision of reliable and affordable energy to consumers 35
CLUSTER 2: IMPROVEMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE AND SOCIAL WELL-BEING 37
Goal 1: Ensure equitable access to quality primary and secondary education for boys and girls, universal literacy and expansion of higher, technical and vocational education. 39
Goal 2: Improved survival, health and well-being of all children and women and especially vulnerable groups 40
Goal 3: Increased access to clean, affordable and safe water, sanitation, decent shelter and a safe and sustainable environment 40
Goal 4: Adequate social protection and rights of the vulnerable and needy groups with basic needs and services 40
CLUSTER 3: GOVERNANCE AND ACCOUNTABILITY 40
Goal 6: Improved personal and material security, reduced crime, eliminate sexual abuse and domestic violence 40
Appendix A. 'Projecting' poverty rates for comparison with the HBS 40
Appendix B. Creating the price deflators 40
List of Tables
Table 1. National Panel Survey 2008/09 Sample Design 11
Table 2. Cluster 1 MKUKUTA indicators available in the NPS 14
Table 3. Comparing the NPS to the HBS based on “projected” poverty headcounts rates (%) 18
Table 4. Price inflation, annual percentage change in price indices, by strata and year a 22
Table 5. Unemployment rates in %: by age category and sex 23
Table 6. Labour force participation rates in %: ILFS 2006 and NPS 2008/09 23
Table 7. Wage employment: Employment shares and wages by sector, ILFS and NPSa 24
Table 8. % of households with erosion problems Error! Bookmark not defined.
Table 9. % of households with irrigation Error! Bookmark not defined.
Table 10. Use of fertilizers and pesticides/ herbicides 33
Table 11. Use of improved seeds 33
Table 12. % of households that received extensions 34
Table 13. Ownership of farm implements (multiple responses allowed) 34
Table 14. % increase in number of customers connected to the national grid and off-grid sources of electricity 35
Table 15. Main fuel used for cooking (%) by stratum and year 36
Table 16. Cluster 2 MKUKUTA indicators available in the NPS 37
Table 17. Net primary school enrolment rates, by year, sex and stratum 39
Table 18. Net secondary school enrolment rates, by year, sex and stratum 40
Table 19. Proportion of children under 5 years-old with low height-for-age (stunted), weight-for-height (wasted), or weight-for age (underweight), % 40
Table 20. Proportion of births attended by various service providers 40
Table 21. Primary source of drinking water (%), by stratum and year/season 40
Table 22. Toilet type (%), by stratum and year 40
Table 23. Household tenure status by stratum and year 40
Table 24. Building materials (%), by stratum and year 40
Table 25. Net primary school enrolment rate among disabled 40
Table 26. Net primary school enrolment rate among orphans 40
Table 27. Cluster 3 MKUKUTA indicators available in the NPS 40
Table 28. % of women 15-50 yrs old who agree with the following statements 40
Table 29. Self-reported incidence of domestic violence (% of women 15-50 yrs old) 40
Table 30. % of domestic violence victims who report abuse to various institutions 40
Table 31. Gender-based violence indicators, by respondent's characteristics (women 15-50 yrs old) 40
Table 32. Average values for independent variables in the model of log consumption, by strata and year 40
Table 33. Regression of log consumption per adult equivalent on household characteristics in 2007 HBS 40
Table 34. Projected poverty rates based on regression model of log consumption 40
Table 35. Imputation of missing price data from the raw CPI data files 40
Table 36. Price inflation, annual percentage change in price indices, by strata and year a 40
Table 37. Average budget shares and prices underlying the price indices, 2007 and 2009. (Dar es Salaam) 40
Table 38. Average budget shares and prices underlying the price indices, 2007 and 2009. (Other Urban) 40
Table 39. Average budget shares and prices underlying the price indices, 2007 and 2009. (Rural) 40
Table 40. Average budget shares for non-food items, 2007 and 2009. 40
Table 41. Average budget shares for non-food items, 2007 and 2009. 40
Table 42. Average budget shares for non-food items, 2007 and 2009. 40 |
